全世界買美債．樓市幾時爆．中式震盪治療．AI改變世界

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全世界買美債．樓市幾時爆．中式震盪治療．AI改變世界

2022 年 10 月 26 日貼堂新聞及評論

Oct 25, 2022

由今日起，試吓個新嘅模式。每日我會搵幾個題目，同時幾個唔同嘅報道，從唔同嘅角度去分析事情。呢個模式，亦係最初我開呢個 Blog 嘅時候，其中一個初衷。

今日揀畀大家嘅題目有：

1. 全世界買美債

美聯儲最近發表嘅一篇文章，提出一個構想，就係將美債嘅市場開放畀全部人參與，就係所謂嘅 all-to-all trading ，呢個建議無疑會斷咗某啲依家嘅一級市場庄家嘅米路。但點解聯儲局有呢個諗法？最終呢件事成事嘅機會又有幾大呢？

延伸閱讀 1 - Should we all get to trade Treasuries? ｜FT Alphaville

https://www.ft.com/content/58184e30-b641-470e-8ce4-65997ec3def9

2. 樓市幾時爆

新一期經濟學人用樓市做封面，話加息周期下，全球樓市泡沫有爆破危機；但又唔需要太驚恐喎，因為今時唔同往日，唔會好似 2007、08 咁。

Bloomberg 有篇講 Austin, Texas 嘅放盤急升，質疑目前樓市有所謂 lock-in effect 嘅講法；即係話，如果唔到價，業主大不了轉售為租。另外我亦都同大家睇下最新 Case-Shiller Index 反映咗啲乜。

延伸閱讀 2.1 - A global house-price slump is coming | The Economist

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2022/10/20/a-global-house-price-slump-is-coming

延伸閱讀 2.2 - Think Homeowners Will Stay Put? Austin Suggests Otherwise | Bloomberg Opinion

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-25/think-homeowners-will-stay-put-austin-texas-suggests-otherwise

延伸閱讀 2.3 - Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Continued to Decelerate" to 13.0% year-over-year increase in August | Calculated Risk

CalculatedRisk Newsletter

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Continued to Decelerate" to 13.0% year-over-year increase in August

Both the Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) HPI for August were released today. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA). The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for “August” is a 3-month average of June, July and August closing prices. Jun…

3 years ago · 13 likes · CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride

3. 中式震盪治療

二十大過後，究竟世界點睇中國？路透社呢篇夾議夾敍嘅報道，講出外界對中國經濟嘅憂慮，尤其係所謂 #第三代習班子缺乏經濟同中央政策經驗啲問題。

但另一邊更精彩嘅文章，係 FT 刊登由 Rockefeller International 主席 Ruchir Sharma 寫嘅評論；當中指出中國經濟嘅幾大死位，包括人口、資本等。

最後，有讀者問我有冇中國近代經濟史嘅書推介，咁啱見到 Project Syndicate 有人推薦 Isabella Weber 寫嘅 How China Escaped Shock Therapy ；先此聲明，我未睇呢本書，但從佢嘅脈絡睇都應該值得望一望。我望完如果覺得正，會去讀埋再寫讀書報告。請耐心等待。

延伸閱讀 3.1 - Analysis: China's newly empowered Xi faces a daunting to-do list ｜Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-newly-empowered-xi-faces-daunting-to-do-list-2022-10-25

延伸閱讀 3.2 - China’s economy will not overtake the US until 2060, if ever

https://www.ft.com/content/cff42bc4-f9e3-4f51-985a-86518934afbe

延伸閱讀 3.3 - How China Escaped Shock Therapy The Market Reform Debate

https://www.routledge.com/How-China-Escaped-Shock-Therapy-The-Market-Reform-Debate/Weber/p/book/9781032008493

4. AI 改變世界

有留意我 FB 同 IG 嘅朋友，都應該見到我呢期好鍾意玩 dall-e 嘅 AI 作畫程式；其實我係想每日透過呢個方法，一來令自己更了解唔同嘅藝術風格，培養個人嘅藝術修養，二來就係提升自己以文字描述影像嘅能力，同時亦都透過 dall-e 嘅作畫，去寫篇短文。

有廣告公司用 deepfake 去做廣告片，表面上呢個係一個法律同道德問題，但我覺得當中可以有更深嘅哲學討論。

另外，有個香港人 Angus Lee 響德國開咗一場以 AI 作曲嘅歌劇 Chasing Waterfalls ；除咗說好香港故事，仲有啲乜呢？

最後， Tyler Cowen 有篇文討論，當 AI 主導咗我哋可以睇到啲乜嘅時候，究竟我哋又可以點樣保持自我呢？

延伸閱讀 4.1 - ‘Deepfakes’ of Celebrities Have Begun Appearing in Ads, With or Without Their Permission ｜ WSJ